Nationwide Hospital Performance on Publicly Reported Episode Spending Measures

To our knowledge, this study is the first to describe hospitals’ episode-specific spending performance nationwide. It demonstrated significant variation across hospitals driven by different episode components for different episode types. It also showed low correlation between individual episode spending measures and poor concordance between episode-specific and global hospital spending measures. Two practice and policy implications are noteworthy.

First, our findings corroborate and build upon evidence from bundled payment programs about the opportunity for hospitals to improve their cost efficiency. Findings from bundled payment evaluations of surgical episodes suggest that the major area for cost savings is in the reduction of institutional post-acute care use such as that of SNFs.^7-9 We demonstrated similar opportunity in a national sample of hospitals, finding that, for the three evaluated procedural CEBPs, SNF care accounted for more variation in overall episode spending than did other components. While variation may imply opportunity for greater efficiency and standardization, it is important to note that variation itself is not inherently problematic. Additional studies are needed to distinguish between warranted and unwarranted variation in procedural episodes, as well as identify strategies for reducing the latter.

Though bundled payment evaluations have predominantly emphasized procedural episodes, existing evidence suggests that participation in medical condition bundles has not been associated with cost savings or utilization changes.^7-15 Findings from our analysis of variance—that there appear to be smaller variation-reduction opportunities for condition episodes than for procedural episodes—offer insight into this issue. Existing episodes are initiated by hospitalization and extend into the postacute period, a design that may not afford substantial post-acute care savings opportunities for condition episodes. This is an important insight as policymakers consider how to best design condition-based episodes in the future (eg, whether to use non–hospital based episode triggers). Future work should evaluate whether our findings reflect inherent differences between condition and procedural episodes¹⁶ or whether interventions can still optimize SNF care for these episodes despite smaller variation.

Second, our results highlight the potential limitations of global performance measures such as Medicare Spending Per Beneficiary. As a general measure of hospital spending, Medicare Spending Per Beneficiary is based on the premise that hospitals can be categorized as high or low cost with consideration of all inpatient episodic care. However, our analyses suggest that hospitals may be high cost for certain episodes and low cost for others—a fact highlighted by the low correlation and high discordance observed between hospital CEBP and Medicare Spending Per Beneficiary performance. Because overarching measures may miss spending differen-ces related to underlying clinical scenarios, episode-specific spending measures would provide important perspective and complements to global measures for assessing hospital cost performance, particularly in an era of value-based payments. Policymakers should consider prioritizing the development and implementation of such measures.

Our study has limitations. First, it is descriptive in nature, and future work should evaluate the association between episode-­specific spending measure performance and clinical and quality outcomes. Second, we evaluated all CEBP-eligible hospitals nationwide to provide a broad view of episode-specific spending. However, future studies should assess performance among hospital subtypes, such as vertically integrated or safety-­net organizations, because they may be more or less able to perform on these spending measures. Third, though findings may not be generalizable to other clinical episodes, our results were qualitatively consistent across episode types and broadly consistent with evidence from episode-based payment models. Fourth, we analyzed cost from the perspective of utilization and did not incorporate price considerations, which may be more relevant for commercial insurers than it is for Medicare.

Nonetheless, the emergence of CEBPs reflects the ongoing shift in policymaker attention toward episode-specific spending. In particular, though further scale or use of CEBP measures has been put on hold amid other payment reform changes, their nationwide implementation in 2017 signals Medicare’s broad interest in evaluating all hospitals on episode-specific spending efficiency, in addition to other facets of spending, quality, safety, and patient experience. Importantly, such efforts complement other ongoing nationwide initiatives for emphasizing episode spending, such as use of episode-based cost measures within the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System¹⁷ to score clinicians and groups in part based on their episode-specific spending efficiency. Insight about episode spending performance could help hospitals prepare for environments with increasing focus on episode spending and as policymakers incorporate this perspective into quality and value-­based payment policies.