An Automated Electronic Tool to Assess the Risk of 30-Day Readmission: Validation of Predictive Performance

Third, the risk scoring system uses elements from varied sources to include social, medical, and individual factors, all of which have been shown to increase risk of 30-day readmissions [9,15]. An accurate risk scoring system, ideally, should include elements from multiple sources, and use of the EMR allows for this varied compilation. The risk evaluation is done on every patient, regardless of admitting diagnosis, and in spite of this heterogeneous population, it was still found to be significantly accurate. Prior studies have looked at individual populations [7,10,12,13,16]; however, this can miss many patient populations that are also high-risk. Tailoring individual risk algorithms by diagnosis can also be labor intensive.

Our study has limitations. It is a retrospective study and included a relatively short study period of 2 months. This period was chosen because it represented the time from when the RRS was first implemented to when interventions to reduce readmission according to the RRS began, however, it still encompassed a significant number of discharges. We were only able to evaluate readmissions to our own facility; therefore, patients readmitted to other facilities were not included. Although readmission to any facility is undesirable, having a risk scoring system that can reliably predict readmission to the index admission hospital is still helpful. In addition, we only validated the risk score on patients in our own facility. A larger population from multiple facilities would be helpful for further validation. In spite of this limitation we would expect that most of our readmissions return to our own facility given our community setting. In fact, based on Medicare data for readmissions to all facilities, the difference in readmission rate between our facility and all facilities differs by less than 4%.

In summary, we developed a comprehensive risk scoring system that proved to be moderately predictive of readmission that encompasses multiple factors, is available to all providers early in a hospitalization, and is completely automated via the EMR. Further studies are ongoing to refine this score and improve the predictive performance.

Corresponding author: Nancy L. Dawson, MD, Division of Hospital Medicine, Mayo Clinic, 4500 San Pablo Road, Jacksonville, FL 32224, dawson.nancy11@mayo.edu.

Financial disclosures: None.