ID Consult

Predictions for 2015



Last year, there were five predictions made that appeared to be on the money – but there is more to the story!

1. The approach to diagnosis and treatment of influenza was essential knowledge for clinicians. Last year, we started seeing influenza activity early – with disease confirmed in mid-November, peaking during the week ending December 28, 2013 and trending downward in early January 2014. Hospitalizations were most common in young and middle aged adults and the 2009 H1N1 virus predominated.

Dr. Mary Anne Jackson

Dr. Mary Anne Jackson

This year, again we are seeing influenza early – with nearly all states reporting at least sporadic and local activity, and several states (Alaska, Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Texas) reporting regional activity as of the week ending November 24, 2014. At my institution, we’ve already tested over 500 children and over 100 were positive – influenza A (H3N2) strains are predominating. That may be important for the two reasons you’ll read below.

2. Invasive staphylococcal disease caused by methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) was more common than methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), as the national burden of MRSA disease decreased (JAMA 2014;311:1438-9). The rates of clindamycin resistance continue to be pretty steady at approximately 15%-18%, but higher for MSSA than for MRSA – a point that is important to consider when empirically treating suspected invasive staphylococcal infection.

3. Multidrug resistant uropathogens took an increasingly prominent role in 2014, requiring careful approach to diagnosis (every child treated for urinary tract infection should have an appropriately obtained urine culture with an identified pathogen) and treatment (the drug used should be based on antibiotic susceptibility testing results). Particularly concerning is the emergence of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, which cause infection more commonly in hospitalized patients, those with indwelling devices, and those who have received long courses of antibiotics.

4. It was an outbreak year for parechovirus (HPeV), a viral pathogen causing meningitis in very young infants. Such infants present with signs and symptoms of meningitis but rarely show CSF pleocytosis. Diagnosis relies on the detection of the virus by polymerase chain reaction testing in CSF – a test which is not routinely available in many laboratories. At my institution this season, we saw nearly as many cases of parechovirus meningitis (n = 43) as we saw cases of enterovirus meningitis (n = 63). The parechovirus virus we detected was HPeV type 3, which can cause particularly severe disease in neonates.

5. Data confirmed that making human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine a standard recommendation increased vaccine uptake and coverage. In February of 2014, a “Dear Colleague” letter that was endorsed by six leading medical organizations encouraged providers to promote HPV vaccination by giving a strong recommendation, citing data based on research conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We still have a long way to go as HPV vaccine coverage for teens remains at 35% for the three-dose series while meningococcal and Tdap vaccine (both vaccines that generally receive a standard recommendation by physicians) coverage is at nearly 90%.

So for 2015, I’ll start the discussion by saying there are five major developments I did not see coming for this past year, but that will remain relevant for the year 2015!

1. In June of 2014, live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) was announced by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to be the preferred vaccine in children aged 2-8 years. The American Academy of Pediatrics followed with a recommendation that either inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) or LAIV be used for children, including children aged 2-8 years – the key being to give the vaccine as soon as one had it available. What was not known then and I did not predict was that newer data would confirm that in children aged 2-8 years who received LAIV last year when 2009 H1N1 strains predominated, there was essentially no coverage against 2009 H1N1 virus. This was in contrast to data from the prior 2 years and is as yet unexplained. The AAP continues to recommend that either vaccine be given and all children be immunized. That may be especially important this year as the influenza season started early. Disease will likely have been widespread by Christmas in many parts of the United States, and it looks like influenza A H3N2 strains will be most commonly noted. So the good news for young children who received LAIV is that 2009 H1N1 strains so far have not been seen this year. The bad news is that there are two H3N2 strains circulating, and potentially only one will be covered by the 2014-2015 seasonal vaccine. Staffing your office and hospital for a likely high census respiratory viral season is going to be essential.

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