Returns to Emergency Department, Observation, or Inpatient Care Within 30 Days After Hospitalization in 4 States, 2009 and 2010 Versus 2013 and 2014

Matching index admissions for AMI, HF, or pneumonia in 201 hospitals in 2009 and 2010 with those in 2013 and 2014, we observed that increases in observation and ED visits coincided with reductions in inpatient readmissions among patients with private insurance and Medicare and contributed to growth in total returns to the hospital among patients with Medicaid or no insurance. Among patients with private insurance and Medicare, inpatient readmissions declined significantly for all 3 target conditions, but total returns to the hospital remained constant for AMI and HF, rose for privately insured patients with pneumonia, and declined modestly for Medicare patients with pneumonia. Inpatient readmissions were unchanged for adults aged 18 to 64 years with Medicaid or no insurance, but total returns to the hospital increased significantly, reaching 32% among those with Medicaid.

These findings add to recent literature, which has primarily emphasized inpatient readmissions among Medicare beneficiaries with several exceptions. A prior analysis indicates that readmissions have declined among diverse payer populations nationally.¹⁸ Gerhardt et al²⁵ found that from 2011 to 2012, all-cause 30-day readmissions declined among fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries following any index admission, while ED revisits remained stable and observation revisits increased slightly. Evaluating the CMS Hospital Readmission Reductions Program (HRRP), Zuckerman et al¹⁷ reported that from 2007 to 2015, inpatient readmissions declined among FFS Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older who were hospitalized with AMI, HF, or pneumonia, while returns to the hospital for observation rose approximately 2%; ED visits were not included. We found that Medicare (FFS and Medicare Advantage) patients with AMI and HF returned to the hospital with the same frequency in 2009 and 2010 as in 2013 and 2014, and those patients with pneumonia returned slightly less often. In aggregate, declines in inpatient readmissions in the 4 states we studied coincided with increases in observation and ED care. Moreover, these shifts occurred not only among Medicare beneficiaries but also among privately insured adults, Medicaid recipients, and the uninsured.

Three factors may have contributed to these apparent shifts from readmissions to observation and ED visits. First, some authors have suggested that hospitals may reduce readmissions by intentionally placing some of the patients who return to the hospital under observation instead of admitting them.^17,26 If true, hospitals with greater declines in readmissions would have larger increases in observation revisits. Zuckerman et al¹⁷ found no correlation among Medicare beneficiaries between hospital-level trends in observation revisits and readmissions, but returns to observation rose more rapidly for AMI, HF, and pneumonia (compared with other conditions) during long term follow-up than during the HRRP implementation period. Other authors have documented that declines in readmissions have been greatest at hospitals with the highest baseline readmission rates,^27,28 and hospitals with lower readmission rates have more observation return visits.²⁹

Second, shifts from inpatient readmissions to return visits for observation may reflect unintentional rather than intentional changes in the services provided. Clinical practice patterns are evolving such that patients who present to the hospital for acute care increasingly are placed under observation or discharged from the ED instead of being admitted, regardless of whether they recently were hospitalized.³⁰ Inpatient admissions, which are strongly correlated with readmission rates,^28,31 are declining nationally,³² and both observation and ED visits are rising.^33-35 Although little is known about effects on health outcomes and patient out-of-pocket costs,shifts from inpatient admissions to observation and ED visits reduce costs to payers.^36,37

Third, instead of substitution, more patients may be returning for lower-acuity conditions that can be treated in the ED or under observation. Hospitals are implementing diverse and multifaceted interventions to reduce readmissions that can involve assessing patient needs and the risk for readmission, educating patients about self-care and risks after discharge, reconciling medication, scheduling follow-up visits, and monitoring patients through telephone calls and home nursing visits.^26,38,39 Although the intent may be to reduce patients’ need to return to the hospital, interventions that educate patients about risks after discharge may lower the threshold at which they find symptoms worrisome enough to return. This could increase lower-acuity return visits. We found that reasons for returning were similar in 2009 and 2010 versus 2013 and 2014, but we did not examine acuity of illness at the time of return.

Other areas of concern are the high rates at which Medicaid patients are returning to the hospital and the increases in rates of returns among Medicaid patients and the uninsured. Individuals in these disadvantaged populations may be having difficulty accessing ambulatory care or may be turning to the ED more often for lower acuity problems that arise after discharge. In 3 of the 4 states we studied, 15% to 16% of adults live in poverty and 10% to 30% live in primary care health professional shortage areas.^40,41 Given the implications for patient outcomes and costs, trends among these populations warrant further scrutiny.^42,43

This analysis has several limitations. Data were from 4 states, but trends in readmissions are similar nationally. From 2010 through 2015, the all-condition readmission rate declined by 8% among Medicare beneficiaries nationally and by 6.1% in South Carolina, 7.4% in Georgia, 8.3% in Nebraska, and 8.7% in Tennessee.⁴⁴ We report trends across hospitals and did not examine hospital-level revisits. Therefore, further research is needed to determine whether these findings are related to co-occurring trends, intentional substitution, or other factors.

In conclusion, measuring inpatient readmissions without accounting for return visits to the ED and observation underestimates the rate at which patients return to the hospital following an inpatient hospitalization. Because of growth in observation and ED visits, trends in the total rates at which patients return to the hospital can differ from trends in inpatient readmissions. In the 4 states we studied, total return rates were particularly high and rising among patients with Medicaid and lower, but also rising, among the uninsured. Policy analysts and researchers should investigate the factors contributing to growth in readmissions in these vulnerable populations and determine whether similar trends are occurring nationwide. Hospitalists play critical roles in admitting and discharging inpatients, caring for patients under observation, and implementing quality improvement programs. Irrespective of payer, hospitalists’ efforts to improve the quality and value of care should include observation and ED visits as well as inpatient readmissions.