From the Journals

Cirrhosis model predicts decompensation across diverse populations



In the second part of the study, the investigators validated their model with two clinically distinct groups in Dublin, Ireland (prospective; n = 141), and Menoufia, Egypt (retrospective; n = 93).

In the Dublin cohort, the most common etiologies were alcohol (39.7%) and hepatitis C (29.8%). Over a maximum observational period of 6.4 years, the decompensation rate was lower than the development group, at 12.1%. Types of decompensation also differed, with variceal bleeding being the most common (47.1%). Patients with high risk scores had a higher HR for decompensation than the U.K. cohort, at 12.54.

In the Egypt group, the most common causes of liver disease were nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (47.3%) and hepatitis C (34.4%). The maximum follow-up period was 10.6 years, during which time 38.7% of patients experienced decompensation, with ascites being the most common form (57.1%). The HR of 5.10 was the lowest of all cohorts.

The investigators noted that the cohorts represented unique patient populations with different etiological patterns. “This provides reassurance that the model has generalizability for stratifying liver disease at an international level,” the investigators wrote, suggesting that ALBI and FIB-4 can be used in low-resource and community settings.

“A frequently leveled criticism of algorithms such as ALBI-FIB-4 is that they are too complicated to be applied routinely in the clinical setting,” the investigators wrote. “To overcome this problem we developed a simple online calculator which can be accessed using the following link:”

“We have shown that routinely available laboratory variables, combined in a novel algorithm, ALBI-FIB-4, can stratify patients with cirrhosis for future risk of liver decompensation,” the investigators concluded. “The ability to do this in the context of early, compensated cirrhosis with preserved liver synthetic function whilst also predicting long-term clinical outcomes has clinical utility for international health care systems.”

The study was funded by National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Nottingham Digestive Diseases Biomedical Research Centre based at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham. The investigators declared no conflicts of interest.

SOURCE: Guha N et al. CGH. 2019 Feb 1. doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2019.01.042.

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