The unmet need for postacute rehabilitation among medicare observation patients: A single-center study

To our knowledge, this is the first study to use chart review to examine the proportion of observation patients who would benefit from PAIR and the relationships among these patients’ rehabilitation needs, dispositions, and outcomes. We tried to be conservative in our estimates by limiting the study population to patients admitted from home. Nevertheless, the potential need for PAIR significantly outweighed the actual use of PAIR on discharge. The study sample was consistent with nationally representative samples of observation patients in terms of proportion of patients admitted from and discharged to facilities⁷ and the most common ICD-9 diagnoses.⁹

Physical Therapy Consultations and Observation

Of the 386 patients whose charts were reviewed and analyzed, 17 (4.4%) were evaluated as medically qualifying for and potentially benefiting from PAIR. Although the rate represents a minority of patients, it is 5- to 6-fold higher than the rate of discharge to PAIR, both in our study population and in previous national samples that used administrative data.⁷ In some cases, the decision not to discharge the patient to PAIR reflected patient and family preference. However, in other cases, patients clearly could have benefited from PAIR and would have gone had it been covered by Medicare. The gap suggests an unmet need for PAIR among a substantial proportion of Medicare beneficiaries for whom the therapy is recommended and wanted.

Efforts to expand coverage for PAIR have been resisted. According to Medicare regulations, beneficiaries qualify for PAIR coverage if they are hospitalized as inpatients for 3 midnights or longer. Days under observation status do not count toward this requirement, even if this status is changed to inpatient.¹⁰ The Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) recommendation that time under observation status count toward the Medicare requirement¹¹ has not been accepted,¹² in large part because further expansion of PAIR services likely would be unaffordable to Medicare under its payment structure.¹³ Given our finding that the need for PAIR likely is much higher than previously anticipated, Medicare policy makers should consider broadening access to PAIR while efforts are made to rein in expenditures through payment reform.

One potential area of cost savings is more judicious use of PT evaluation for observation patients, particularly given our finding that the majority of PT consultations resulted in no further recommendations. Efforts to triage PT consultations for appropriateness have had some success, though the literature is scant.¹⁴ To improve value for Medicare, healthcare systems, and patients, researchers should rigorously evaluate approaches that maximize appropriate use of PT services.

Hospital Length of Stay

Our cohort’s mean hospital stay was longer than averages reported elsewhere,⁹ likely reflecting our selection of Medicare patients rather than a general medicine population.⁶ However, our cohort’s adjusted mean hospital stay was significantly longer for patients recommended for PAIR than for patients without PT needs. That out-of-pocket costs for observation patients increase dramatically as LOS goes past 48 hours⁶ could have significant financial implications for Medicare beneficiaries.

Return Visits

Almost 25% of our observation patients returned to hospital within 30 days. There was a significant trend toward increased rehospitalization among patients recommended for PAIR than among patients with no PT needs.

Policies related to PAIR for observation patients are rooted in the concern that expanded access to services will contribute to overuse of services and higher healthcare costs.¹⁵ However, patients who could have benefited from PAIR but were not covered also were at risk for increased healthcare use and costs. A recent study found that more than one fourth of observation patients with repeat observation stays accrued excessive financial liability.¹⁶ Researchers should determine more precisely how the cost of coverage for PAIR placement on an index observation admission compares with the cost of subsequent healthcare use potentially related to insufficient supportive care at home.

Study Limitations

Our results must be interpreted within the context of study limitations. First is the small sample size, particularly the subset of patients selected for detailed manual chart review. We were limited in our ability to calculate sample size prospectively because we were unaware of prior work that described the association between PT recommendation and outcomes among observation patients. However, post hoc analysis estimated that a sample size of 181 patients would have been needed to determine a statistically significant difference in 30-day hospital revisit between patients recommended for PAIR and patients with no PT needs with 80% power, which we achieved. Although there are significant limitations to post hoc sample size estimation, we consider our work hypothesis-generating and hope it will lead to larger studies.

We could not account for the potential bias of the physical therapists, whose evaluations could have been influenced by knowledge of patients’ observation status. Our findings could have underestimated the proportion of patients who otherwise would have been recommended for PAIR. Alternatively, therapists could have inaccurately assessed and overstated the need for PAIR. Although we could not account for the therapists’ accuracy and biases, their assessments provided crucial information beyond what was previously obtained from administrative data alone.^7,9

Hospital revisits were only accounted for within our hospital system—another potential source of underestimated findings. A significant proportion of patients recommended for home PT were discharged without services, which is counterintuitive, as Medicare covers home nursing services for observation patients. This finding most likely reflects administrative error but probably merits further evaluation.

Last, causality cannot be inferred from the results of a retrospective observational study.