New cholesterol guidelines: Worth the wait?
Case 3: Overtreating a primary prevention patient
Based on the risk calculator, essentially any African American man in his early 60s with no other risk factors has a 10-year risk of ASCVD of 7.5% or higher and, according to the new guidelines, should receive at least moderate-intensity statin therapy.
For example, consider a 64-year-old African American man whose systolic blood pressure is 129 mm Hg, who does not smoke, does not have diabetes, and does not have hypertension, and whose total cholesterol level is 180 mg/dL, HDL-C 70 mg/dL, triglycerides 130 mg/dL, and calculated LDL-C 84 mg/dL. His calculated 10-year risk is, surprisingly, 7.5%.
Alternatively, his twin brother is a two-pack-per-day smoker with untreated hypertension and systolic blood pressure 150 mm Hg, with fasting total cholesterol 153 mg/dL, HDL-C 70 mg/dL, triglycerides 60 mg/dL, and LDL-C 71 mg/dL. His calculated 10-year risk is 10.5%, so according to the new guidelines, he too should receive high-intensity statin therapy. Yet this patient clearly needs better blood pressure control and smoking cessation as his primary risk-reduction efforts, not a statin. While assessing global risk is important, a shortcoming of the new guidelines is that they can inappropriately lead to treating the risk score, not individualizing the treatment to the patient. Because of the errors inherent in the risk calculator, some experts have called for a temporary halt on implementing the new guidelines until the risk calculator can be further validated. In November 2013, the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology reaffirmed their support of the new guidelines and recommended that they be implemented as planned. As of the time this manuscript goes to print, there are no plans to halt implementation of the new guidelines.
Case 4: Undertreating a primary prevention patient
A 25-year-old white man with no medical history has a total cholesterol level of 310 mg/dL, HDL-C 50 mg/dL, triglycerides 400 mg/dL, and calculated LDL-C 180 mg/dL. He does not smoke or have hypertension or diabetes but has a strong family history of premature coronary disease (his father died of myocardial infarction at age 42). His body mass index is 25 kg/m2. Because he is less than 40 years old, the risk calculator does not apply to him.
If we assume he remains untreated and returns at age 40 with the same clinical factors and laboratory values, his calculated 10-year risk of an ASCVD event according to the new risk calculator will still be only 3.1%. Assuming his medical history remains unchanged as he continues to age, his 10-year risk would not reach 7.5% until he is 58. Would you feel comfortable waiting 33 years before starting statin therapy in this patient?
Waiting for dyslipidemic patients to reach middle age before starting LDL-C-lowering therapy is a failure of prevention. For practical reasons, there are no data from randomized controlled trials with hard outcomes in younger people. Nevertheless, a tenet of preventive cardiology is that cumulative exposure accelerates the “vascular age” ahead of the chronological age. This case illustrates why individualized recommendations guided by LDL-C goals as a target for therapy are needed. For this 25-year-old patient, we would recommend starting an intermediate- or high-potency statin.
Case 5: Rheumatoid arthritis
A 60-year-old postmenopausal white woman with severe rheumatoid arthritis presents for cholesterol evaluation. Her total cholesterol level is 235 mg/dL, HDL-C 50 mg/dL, and LDL-C 165 mg/dL. She does not smoke or have hypertension or diabetes. Her systolic blood pressure is 110 mm Hg. She has elevated C-reactive protein on an ultrasensitive assay and elevated lipoprotein(a).
Her calculated 10-year risk of ASCVD is 3.0%. Assuming her medical history remains the same, she would not reach a calculated 10-year risk of at least 7.5% until age 70. We suggest starting moderate- or high-dose statin therapy in this case, based on data (not from randomized controlled trials) showing an increased risk of ASCVD events in patients with rheumatologic disease, increased lipoprotein(a), and inflammatory markers like C-reactive protein. However, the current guidelines do not address this scenario, other than to suggest that clinician consideration can be given to other risk markers such as these, and that these findings should be discussed in detail with the patient. The Justification for the Use of Statins in Primary Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin trial16 showed a dramatic ASCVD risk reduction in just such patients (Figure 1).
APPLAUSE—AND RESERVATIONS
The newest guidelines for treating high blood cholesterol represent a monumental shift away from using target levels of LDL-C and non-HDL-C and toward a focus on statin intensity for patients in the four highest-risk groups.
We applaud the expert panel for its idealistic approach of using only data from randomized controlled trials, for placing more emphasis on higher-intensity statin treatment, for including stroke in the new definition of ASCVD, and for focusing more attention on treating diabetic patients more aggressively. Simplifying the guidelines is a noble goal. Emphasizing moderate-to-high-intensity statin therapy in patients at moderate-to-high risk should have substantial long-term public health benefits.
However, as we have shown in the case examples, there are significant limitations, and some patients can end up being overtreated, while others may be undertreated.
Guidelines need to be crafted by looking at all the evidence, including the pathophysiology of the disease process, not just data from randomized controlled trials. It is difficult to implement a guideline that on one hand used randomized controlled trials exclusively for recommendations, but on the other hand used an untested risk calculator to guide therapy. Randomized controlled trials are not available for every scenario.
Further, absence of randomized controlled trial data in a given scenario should not be interpreted as evidence of lack of benefit. An example of this is a primary-prevention patient under age 40 with elevated LDL-C below the 190 mg/dL cutoff who otherwise is healthy and without risk factors (eg, Case 4). By disregarding all evidence that is not from randomized controlled trials, the expert panel fails to account for the extensive pathophysiology of ASCVD, which often begins at a young age and takes decades to develop.5,6,39 An entire generation of patients who have not reached the age of inclusion in most randomized controlled trials with hard outcomes is excluded (unless the LDL-C level is very high), potentially setting back decades of progress in the field of prevention. Prevention only works if started. With childhood and young adult obesity sharply rising, we should not fail to address the under-40-year-old patient population in our guidelines.
Guidelines are designed to be expert opinion, not to dictate practice. Focusing on the individual patient instead of the general population at risk, the expert panel appropriately emphasizes the “importance of clinician judgment, weighing potential benefits, adverse effects, drug-drug interactions and patient preferences.” However, by excluding all data that do not come from randomized controlled trials, the panel neglects a very large base of knowledge and leaves many clinicians without as much expert opinion as we had hoped for.
LDL-C goals are important: they provide a scorecard to help the patient with lifestyle and dietary changes. They provide the health care provider guidance in making treatment decisions and focusing on treatment of a single patient, not a population. Moreover, if a patient has difficulty taking standard doses of statins because of side effects, the absence of LDL-C goals makes decision-making nearly impossible. We hope physicians will rely on LDL-C goals in such situations, falling back on the ATP III recommendations, although many patients may simply go untreated until they present with ASCVD or until they “age in” to a higher risk category.
We suggest caution in strict adherence to the new guidelines and instead urge physicians to consider a hybrid of the old guidelines (using the ATP III LDL-C goals) and the new ones (emphasizing global risk assessment and high-intensity statin treatment).
