Predicting the future has been a favorite topic of surgeons through the ages for addresses to august surgical societies.
Confident predictions of the future of surgery, however, have not always stood the test of time. Speaking at the University of Manchester’s Centenary celebration in 1973 at an international symposium on “Medicine in the 21st Century,” the noted surgeon J. Englebert Dunphy correctly predicted the prominence of joint-replacement procedures, but incorrectly asserted that medical advances would virtually eliminate the need for cholecystectomy through dissolution of gallstones and the need for surgical approaches to atherosclerosis through plaque prevention and dissolution. He accurately predicted that infections and sepsis would remain serious problems. But he missed the mark when he predicted that surgical pain would be eliminated by a pill that would block somatic nerve impulses without any respiratory or circulatory effects (Surgery. 1974 Mar;75:332-7). Technologic advances such as laparoscopic cholecystectomy, which emerged less than 20 years into the future, were not on his radar screen.
Change and disruptive technology
To be sure, the surgical procedures and methods have changed markedly since the time I trained in surgery in the 1970s. The most obvious change is the shift from large incisions to small ones, with the commensurate quick recovery and short hospital stays. This change is primarily because of the emergence of disruptive technology, a concept that has pervaded every avenue of our current lives, not just surgery: Think Uber, robotics in industry, the Internet, smartphones, and the miniaturization of just about every communication means. In medicine, these disruptive technologies have led to the emergence of the electronic health record, new imaging modalities, percutaneous interventional techniques, fiber optic endoscopy, laparoscopy, and endovascular surgery.
Maintaining capacity to do infrequent operations
During my training, H2 receptor antagonists and Helicobacter pylori came on the scene, with the result that ulcer operations almost disappeared from our surgical armamentarium; one of my most frequent operations as a senior and chief resident has become a rarity 40 years later for our trainees. And yet, a general surgeon must know how to perform an ulcer operation and which type is the best for a given circumstance, since perforated and bleeding ulcers are still seen, if infrequently. The perforated ulcer is seen most often in patients with multiple comorbidities who can least tolerate a complication and need one effective and well-executed operation if they are going to survive. How do we continue to teach residents these procedures when they have become infrequent?
There is perhaps some utility in keeping some aging surgeons around to teach residents on fresh cadavers, or to call them out of their assisted living facilities when needed for consultation! Now that the majority of operations in most places are being performed by minimally invasive surgical (MIS) methods, we may not need MIS fellowships or training much longer for trainees to become proficient in these skills, because it is the open operations that are less frequent. Our chief residents are much less secure about performing an open cholecystectomy, of which they have performed perhaps 5, than they are about performing laparoscopic cholecystectomy, of which they have performed 105.
Technologies on the verge of disrupting
Mark Aeder, MD, FACS, recently asked an important question in the ACS Communities thread on the future of surgery: What will the future disruptive innovations be? Which areas of surgery will bloom next?
There are many game-changing emerging technologies that could well turn out to be future “disruptors” of surgery as we know it. Cancer surgery is on track to be transformed by the development of genomics and personalized medicine and immunotherapy for melanoma and lung cancer.
The areas most likely to remain in the surgical realm are trauma, infections, and inflammation. Though safer cars, seatbelt laws, and helmet laws for motorcyclists have already decreased motor vehicle accidents and injury severity, we have still not produced a cure for stupidity or bad luck. Traumatic injuries will always be with us, and surgeons well trained in trauma management will continue to be needed. Appendicitis, cholecystitis, and diverticulitis will continue to require operations, even though inroads have begun with the studies showing success of antibiotic treatment for appendicitis and diverticulitis.
Keep current, avoid bandwagons
The key lesson, not only for our young surgeons-in-training but also for our seasoned surgeons, is to keep learning, keep networking, and keep adopting new techniques as soon as they show true evidence of success.
The best way for surgeons to remain prepared for whatever the future will bring is to stay current with innovations coming on the scene but not jump on the bandwagon too early and adopt new fads without substantial evidence of their soundness. A few retrospective case series reporting success with a new operation is insufficient evidence to try it out on the unsuspecting public. Although the completion of well-designed randomized trials with adequate follow-up takes time, it is better to stick with well-established and evidence-based techniques than rush to embrace an inadequately vetted procedure that may end up harming a patient.