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PARS Efficacious in Predicting Asthma Development

J Allergy Clin Immunol; ePub 2018 Dec 13; Biagini Myers, et al

The Pediatric Asthma Risk Score (PARS) performed better than the Asthma Predictive Index (API) in children with mild-to-moderate asthma, a recent study found. This is significant because these children are the most common and most difficult to predict and might be the most amenable to prevention strategies. Data from the Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study (n=762) birth cohort were used to identify factors that predicted asthma development. The PARS was constructed by integrating demographic and clinical data. The sensitivity and specificity of PARS were compared with those of the API. Researchers found:

  • PARS reliably predicted asthma development in the Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study (sensitivity = 0.68, specificity = 0.77).
  • Although both the PARS and API predicted asthma in high-risk children, the PARS had improved ability to predict asthma in children with mild-to-moderate asthma risk.
  • In addition to parental asthma, eczema, and wheezing apart from colds, variables that predicted asthma in the PARS included early wheezing, sensitization to ≥2 food allergens and/or aeroallergens, and African American race.


Biagini Myers JM, Schauberger E, He H, et al. A pediatric asthma risk score to better predict asthma development in young children. [Published online ahead of print December 13, 2018]. J Allergy Clin Immunol. doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2018.09.037.