Clinical Edge

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Model for Absolute Risk of Breast Cancer

JAMA Oncol; ePub 2016 May 26; Maas, Barrdahl, et al

A new model for predicting absolute risk of breast cancer, including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), can provide stratification for the population of white women in the US and can also identify subsets of the population at an elevated risk that would benefit most from risk reduction strategies based on altering modifiable factors. This according to a study of 17,171 cases and 19,862 controls, and 5,879 women participating in the 2010 National Health Interview Survey. Researchers found:

• Average absolute risk for a white women aged 30 years in the US developing invasive breast cancer by age 80 years is 11.3%.

• A model that includes all risk factors provided a range of average absolute risk from 4.4% to 23.5% for women in the bottom and top deciles of the risk distribution, respectively.

• For women at the lowest and highest deciles of nonmodifiable risks, the 5th and 95th percentile range of the risk distribution associated with 4 modifiable factors was 2.9% to 5.0% and 15.5% to 25.0%, respectively.

• For women in the highest decile of risk owing to nonmodifiable factors, those who had low BMI, did not drink or smoke, and did not use menopausal hormone therapy had risks comparable to an average women in the general population.

Citation: Maas P, Barrdahl M, Joshi AD, et al. Breast cancer risk from modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors among white women in the United States. [Published online ahead of print May 26, 2016]. JAMA Oncol. doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2016.1025.