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Fibrosis scoring systems have ‘modest’ predictive value in general population

Key clinical point: Current fibrosis scoring systems appear to have only a modest predictive ability for development of severe liver disease among unselected individuals in the general population.

Major finding: For one test, 12.4% of individuals classified as high risk developed severe liver diseases over 10 years, compared with just 0.4% of the low-risk group, yet out of 723 cases, 502 (69%) occurred in the low-risk patients. Similar findings were reported for the five scoring systems evaluated.

Study details: A Swedish population-based cohort study including more than 800,000 individuals between the ages of 35 and 79 years.

Disclosures: The study was supported by an independent grant from AstraZeneca. Dr. Hagström reported disclosures related to that company, as well as Novo Nordisk, Gilead Sciences, IQVIA, Intercept, and Bristol Myers-Squibb.


Hagström H et al. Gastroenterology. 2019 Sep 4. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2019.09.008.