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Smoking & Lung Cancer Mortality in the US to 2065

Ann Intern Med; ePub 2018 Oct 9; Jeon, et al

Lung cancer rates in the US will continue to diminish well into the next century due to tobacco control efforts implemented since the 1960s, with additional cessation efforts needed to sustain and expand these gains. This according to comparative modeling study that projected reductions in tobacco use and lung cancer mortality in the US from 2015 to 2065. Models were developed using US data on smoking (1964 to 2015) and lung cancer mortality (1969 to 2010). Each model projected lung cancer mortality by smoking status under the assumption that current decreases in smoking would continue into the future. Among the details:

  • Age-adjusted lung cancer mortality was projected to decrease by 79% between 2015 and 2065.
  • Concomitantly, the annual number of lung cancer deaths was projected to decrease from 135,000 to 50,000 (63% reduction).
  • However, 4.4 million deaths from lung cancer are still projected to occur in the US from 2015 to 2065, with ~20 million adults aged 30-84 years continuing to smoke in 2065.


Jeon J, Holford TR, Levy DT, et al. Smoking and lung cancer mortality in the United States from 2015 to 2065: A comparative modeling approach. Ann Intern Med. [Published online ahead of print October 9, 2018]. doi:10.7326/M18-1250.