Clinical Edge

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Prediction Tool Effective for Assessing cSCC Risk

J Invest Dermatol; ePub 2018 Jul 2; Wang, et al

cSCCscore, a prediction tool that uses patients’ covariates and clinical histories to assign them personal probabilities of developing cutaneuous squamous cell cancers (cSCCs) within 3 years following risk assessment, can facilitate more informed management of non-Hispanic white (NHW) patients at cSCC risk. This according to a recent study that examined cSCCscore using cohort data from 66,995 patients in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California healthcare system. Researchers found:

  • Patients’ covariates and histories explained about 75% of their interpersonal cSCC risk variation.
  • Using cross-validated performance measures, cSCCscore’s predictions were moderately well calibrated to the patients’ observed cSCC incidence.
  • Moreover, cSCCscore discriminated well between patients who subsequently did and did not develop a new primary cSCC within 3 years following risk assignment, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of approximately 85%.


Wang W, Jorgenson E, Joannidis NM, Asgari MM, Whittemore AS. A prediction tool to facilitate risk-stratified screening for squamous cell skin cancer. [Published online ahead of print July 2, 2018]. J Invest Dermatol. doi:10.1016/j.jid.2018.03.1528.