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Predicting Asthma Development in Young Children

J Allergy Clin Immunol; ePub 2018 Dec 13; Biagini Myers, et al

In children with mild-to-moderate asthma, the Pediatric Asthma Risk Score (PARS) personalized tool performed better than the Asthma Predictive Index (API) in predicting asthma development, a recent study found. Researchers used data from the Cincinnati Allergy and Air Pollution Study (n=762) birth cohort to identify factors that predicted asthma development. The sensitivity and specifying of PARS were compared with those of the API. They found:

  • PARS reliability predicted asthma development in the study cohort (sensitivity = 0.68, specificity = 0.77).
  • Although both the PARS and API predicted asthma in high-risk children, the PARS had improved ability to predict asthma in children with mild-to-moderate asthma risk.
  • In addition to parental asthma, eczema, and wheezing apart from colds, variables the predicted asthma in the PARS included early wheezing, sensitization to ≥2 food allergens and/or aeroallergens, and African American race.


Biagini Myers JM, Schauberger E, He H, et al. A pediatric asthma risk score to better predict asthma development in young children. [Published online ahead of print December 13, 2018]. J Allergy Clin Immunol. doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2018.09.037.