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Long-Term Absolute Risk for CVD by FG Level

Diabetes Care; ePub 2019 Jan 7; Bancks, et al

Middle-aged individuals with diabetes have high long-term absolute risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), a new study found. Researchers aimed to estimate the long-term absolute risk for CVD according to fasting glucose (FG) levels below the threshold of diabetes.

They pooled data from 7 observational cohorts of US black and white men and women followed from 1960 to 2015 and categorized FG as follows: <5.0, 5.0‒5.5, 5.6‒6.2, 6.3‒6.9 mmol/L, and diabetes (FG ≥7.0 mmol/L or use of diabetes medications). They found:

  • The study included 19,630 individuals (6,197 blacks and 11,015 women) without a prior CVD event.
  • Risk for CVD through aged 85 years ranged from 15.3% to 38.6% among women and from 21.5% to 47.7% among men.
  • An FG of 6.3‒6.9 mmol/L was associated with higher long-term CVD risk vs the lowest FG among men, but not women.
  • Increases in glucose during midlife with conversion to diabetes were associated with higher CV risk than when increasing glucose below the diabetes threshold.


Bancks MP, Ning H, Allen NB, et al. Long-term absolute risk for cardiovascular disease stratified by fasting glucose level. [Published online ahead of print January 7, 2019]. Diabetes Care. doi:10.2337/dc18-1773.