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Diabetes Costs Likely to Increase Greatly by 2030

Diabetes Care; ePub 2018 Feb 23; Bommer, et al

The global costs of diabetes and its consequences are large and will substantially increase by 2030, according to a recent study. Furthermore, even if countries meet international targets, the global economic burden will not decrease. Policy makers need to take urgent action to prepare health and social security systems to mitigate the effects of diabetes. Researchers modeled the absolute and gross domestic product (GDP)-relative economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 20–79 years using epidemiological and demographic data, as well as recent GDP forecasts for 180 countries. They assumed 3 scenario regarding prevalence and mortality: 1) increased only with urbanization and population aging (baseline scenario), 2) increased in line with previous trends (past trends scenario), and 3) achieved global targets (target scenario). They found:

  • The absolute global economic burden will increase from US $1.3 trillion in 2015 to $2.2 trillion in the baseline, $2.5 trillion in the past trends, and $2.1 trillion in the target scenarios by 2030.
  • This translates to an increase in costs as a share of global GDP from 1.8% in 2015 to a maximum of 2.2%.

Citation:

Bommer C, Sagalova V, Heesemann E, et al. Global economic burden of diabetes in adults: Projections from 2015 to 2030. [Published online ahead of print February 23, 2018]. Diabetes Care. doi:10.2337/dc17-1962.

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